Bud Collins
PARIS – For the third straight year the French Open final pits Switzerland’s Roger Federer against Spain’s Rafael Nadal and for the third straight year it will be a Swiss miss at glory in the season’s second major. Though I am willing to predict Federer will take a set off Nadal on Sunday (as he has done in the Roland Garros title match the past two years) one set will be all that goes the way of the top-ranked player in the world. Look for Nadal, the world No. 2, to prevail in four sets for his fourth consecutive French Open crown -- equaling the feat of Bjorn Borg from 1978 to 1981.
A French Open title is all that is keeping Federer from a career Grand Slam. If he ever conquers the red clay and is the last man standing at Roland Garros he will basically shore up his right to boast he’s the best to ever play the game.
But from the looks of things Nadal isn’t likely to lose a match in Paris anytime soon. All he’s done here is go 27-0 in his career, dropping only seven sets along the way.
Until recently I thought Federer had a pretty good chance of beating Nadal on the terre battue -- at least maybe one day if not this year. I’m certainly aware that Nadal owns a 10-6 winning record against Federer but you have to have faith in the best in the business to get the job done on dirt on at least one occasion before he calls it a career.
But that was my opinion before Federer squandered leads he had on clay against Nadal in the finals at both Monte Carlo and Hamburg earlier this year. Those losses have given me pause over Federer’s chances to upend Nadal on his personal center stage, which is Roland Garros. Adding to my doubt over Federer becoming the latest King on Clay is that while he has made the final he hasn’t played great tennis here.
As for Nadal, for the second consecutive year he cruised to the Paris final without dropping a set. And the ways he accomplished that are incredible, winning two sets at love and eight sets with the score of 6-1 in the 18 sets he’s played. Only reigning Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic stretched Nadal to a tiebreaker before Spain’s gallant guy moved into the final with a 6-4, 6-2, 7-6 (3) semifinal win over Djokovic.
In contrast, Federer has not had an easy road to the title match. That Swiss precision thing isn’t really working as he was pushed to four sets by Albert Montanes in the second round, four sets by Fernando Gonzalez in the quarterfinal and four sets against the entertaining Frenchman and Parisian favorite Gael Monfils in the semifinals before securing a 6-2, 5-7, 6-3, 7-5 win.
Monfils gets points for being a great character on the court but in truth he shouldn’t have been able to challenge Federer in their meeting. But Federer missed too many easy shots -- making 30 unforced errors. You have to wonder when a player of Federer’s caliber offers an opponent 13 break-point opportunities and has his serve broken three times.
On the subject of Federer’s serve, I don’t really understand what has happened to it, but I do know it’s not the weapon it used to be. Back a few years ago, Federer had incredible touch with his serve and he must try to summon that in the final. I remember back a few years ago that when Federer would serve he’d hit a line, he’d hit a corner and would come up with at least an ace, maybe two, every service game. Those free points were very valuable and he could use that advantage again come Sunday.
If I was Federer’s coach -- a position which is currently falling to the very smart clay-court instructor Jose Higueras -- I’d implore my star pupil to come on in and make things happen at the net. Besides employing that bit of strategy, Federer also has to try to take Nadal out of his comfort zone and to do that he’s going to have to constantly go for the corners or go for the lines -- he cannot be hesitant in either of those areas. These are the ways – the only ways -- I see Federer having any shot at winning against Nadal. The Swiss mission is damn the torpedoes and full speed ahead.
Up until now all Nadal would say about himself is that he is a promising player. Now having just turned 22 and with three Roland Garros titles and two consecutive Wimbledon final appearances under his belt he can say more because he has surpassed the label of being a promising player.
Nadal is getting better and better and you can just sense his rising confidence every time he steps on the court, especially here on the surface of his dreams. He is being very modest in continually saying he could lose at anytime but I don’t believe that he feels that to be possible.
Nadal is ready to go for French Open title No. 4. Roland Garros is his private playground and his favorite tournament. That has been made clear by his never having lost a match in the City of Lights. And I’m sure no matter how humble he tries to be, he fully expects to win on Sunday.
After assessing the chances in the final of both of these fabulous players, I have to say that Federer would have to play the match of his life to stop Nadal but I don’t really see him being able to do that on Sunday.
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So when the final stroke of the tournament is hit, I anticipate Nadal to emerge triumphant – which if it happens will be all the more special to him with Borg looking on. If Federer was to beat Nadal on Sunday I’d consider it a monumental upset.
Nadal tunes up for French by beating Federer
Nadal 1 win from 4th straight French Open title
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